The Prognos study, commissioned by Germany’s VDA (Automobile Industry Association), outlines significant changes in employment patterns within the automotive industry as it shifts towards electrification, digitalization, and automation. The transformation is anticipated to result in approximately 190,000 job losses by 2035, with nearly 25% of these already occurring. This shift is driven by the reduction in labor required for electric vehicle production compared to conventional vehicles and is compounded by growing global competition and increasing operational costs in Germany. Jobs in traditional fields such as mechanical and metal engineering are particularly affected, while roles in IT, automotive engineering, and energy technology are expanding to accommodate the new demands of an electrified automotive industry.
The study reveals a mixed impact on various professions within the industry. For example, while demand for IT, communication technology, and electrical engineering professionals is growing, traditional roles in metalworking, welding, and other manual production areas are seeing both relevance and workforce availability decrease. Some sectors, like plastics production, are not growing as expected, partly due to high energy costs in Germany. In contrast, the automotive industry has seen a 36% increase in HR positions since 2013, likely a response to growing regulatory demands and an emphasis on employee welfare. These changes highlight the need for a supportive policy framework to retain industry competitiveness amid rising energy prices, high taxes, and bureaucratic challenges that impact Germany’s attractiveness as a business location. VDA President Hildegard Müller emphasized the industry’s commitment to this transformation, citing a planned €280 billion investment in research and development by German car manufacturers through 2028. However, she also warned that the shift to electromobility requires strong political support to prevent job migration abroad and bolster Germany’s industrial landscape. The study concludes that while emerging jobs offer some offset to losses, Germany’s competitive stance remains fragile. Müller advocates for structural reforms, including reduced energy costs and streamlined administrative processes, to secure Germany’s future role in the evolving global automotive market.
